I have waited for 17 days to do a stocktake of my predictions before the election, and technically I should wait until all the counting is done, but I don’t think any new developments will change how well I did.
1. “Labor will win” – Well, I got the big one right. Tick.
2. “they’ll probably do slightly better with Gillard” – We can never know for sure, but I’m going to count this as a failed prediction. Cross.
3. “The deposing of Rudd will not be a big factor by the end of the campaign” – No-one cared except a few Queenslanders. Tick.
4. Labor as competent economic managers – The big failure of the campaign is that they didn’t go hard on this (presumably because it would keep awareness of the deposing of Rudd in the limelight). I think I was right to predict it would be the accepted wisdom, but its failure to become a central campaign issue negates my prediction. Neither tick nor cross.
5. Border protection – Didn’t become a big issue, despite the Coalition’s fervent efforts. Neither tick nor cross.
6. Gay marriage – Wasn’t even a blip on the campaign radar. Neither tick nor cross.
7. Resources tax – Ditto (thanks to advertising truce and backdown by Labor), but that’s what I predicted. Tick.
8. More Senate seats for the Greens – Tick.
9. No HoR seats for the Greens – Cross. That one took me by surprise.
10. No big change in Greens vote – Most of Labor’s lost votes went to the Greens. Cross.
11. “Liberals will gain some seats” – They did better than I thought, but the prediction stands. Tick.
12. Abbott as liability – Contrary to expectations, Abbott was consistent and disciplined during the campaign, with only a few gaffes and no big ones. Cross.
13. Stopping the boats will be a vote-winner – Hard to tell. Despite the barrage of tedious advertising that had this as a prime policy, I don’t feel it was a big winner for the Coalition. Neither tick nor cross.
14. Liberals deprived of usual position as better on the economy – The flipside of number 4, and therefore neither tick nor cross.
Tally: 5 correct, 4 incorrect, 5 turning out to be too hard to call or largely irrelevant. Not bad, but I’ll do better next time.