Barring any game-changing developments, Labor will win. They were going to win with Rudd as leader anyway, but they’ll probably do slightly better with Gillard. The deposing of Rudd will not be a big factor by the end of the campaign. The myth that Labor saved Australia from recession will be commonly accepted by a majority, nullifying one of the Liberals’ traditional strengths. Gillard will maintain a just-to-the-left-of-the-Coalition stance on “border protection” that is sufficiently populist to appeal to enough voters. She won’t risk pissing off the committed conservative religious types by doing the right thing on gay marriage. Even though a clear majority of Australians support it, they mostly don’t consider it a key issue (unlike the fundies, a minority who might change their vote according to how politicians move on it). The resources tax has had much of its sting removed, and the media has certainly dropped it from their list of hot topics, though Twiggy and some others are worried about the possibility of an increase in Green representation in the Senate thanks to the preferences deal with Labor, and could prove a thorn in Gillard’s side.
Which brings me to the Greens. They will have an increased representation in the Senate thanks to the preferences deal with Labor. They will not win any lower house seats. Their HoR vote will increase or decrease marginally, with no big swings.
The Liberals will gain some seats, especially in urban fringes. Abbott will eventually prove a liability as Labor’s attack ads sink into the public consciousness and his gaffes mount up, with some marginal seats falling to Labor. After campaigning hard on “stopping the boats”, which will be a vote-winner, the lack of other popular policies will be their downfall. Being deprived of their title as better economic managers, however spuriously, and a lack of fear-inducing events to bolster their security policies, will combine with a shortage of frontbenchers with a high enough level of perceived competence to ensure they lose.
Disclaimer: I have a terrible track record when it comes to predictions. Do not rely on this if you’re betting on the outcome.