You’ve got to be kidding

Sometimes I laugh at the names people give their children. Sometimes I want to weep. Sometimes I think, “Poor kid.” But it never, ever crossed my mind to have the government approve baby names.

Germany takes a highly regimented approach to naming. Children’s names must be approved by local authorities and there is a reference work, the International Handbook of Forenames, to guide them.

The head of the centre at Leipzig University that provides certificates of approval for names that have not yet made the official list, Professor Juergen Udolph, said: “The state has a responsibility to protect people from idiotic forenames.”

And according to the story, protect people from having too many surnames (have they never heard of Saxe-Coburg and Gotha, or Schleswig-Holstein-Sonderburg-Glücksburg? They did pretty well despite the length of their surnames).

Now I want to weep, not for unfortunate children, but for a German society that thinks restricting parent’s free speech and right to name their own child is somehow a public good deserving of taxpayer funds and worth taking up court time to enforce.

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CBD Metro - now worst idea ever?

It’s almost too easy to poke fun at the idiotic idea of spending billions of dollars to build an underground metro from Central to Rozelle - that corridor is well served for public transport, the money could be better spent on heavy rail to places that have little to no public transport, the proposal uses up valuable underground space, etc.

Now there’s a new reason - barely anyone will use it, according to the government’s own forecast. It will run at about 15% capacity when it opens, and more than a decade later (!) will barely make it past 25% capacity. And this is in peak hour!

Notice how I said “when it opens”, not “if it opens”? That’s because the worse this proposal turns out to be, the more afraid I am that this will be the one major infrastructure project that will actually get finished by the NSW government. After all, good proposals die almost as soon as they are spawned, so it stands to reason that possibly the worst idea ever will make it to completion.

I read a defence of the low patronage forecasts in Letters to the Editor the next day, saying that no transport could expect to be full on day one, and that its presence will create its own demand. I could tell before I got to the name that it wasn’t someone in the Transport Department, because they would have been hugely hypocritical - the sole semi-reasonable argument given against building the north-west heavy rail line is a possible lack of passengers.

Except the north-west heavy rail line would create its own demand - the mere promise it would be built sparked an increase in people moving to the corridor decades ago. It’s also mostly spacious, single-storey suburbia out that way, with plenty of room for higher-density housing, so the capacity to increase passenger numbers is quite high.

The Balmain and Pyrmont peninsulas, on the other hand, are chockers. Pyrmont is putting up the last tower in Jackson’s Landing right now, and Balmain/Rozelle/Lilyfield, while not having any major high-rises, are crammed with medium-density housing and have much higher restrictions on building due to heritage regulations. The only demand for public transport in these areas is what is already there.

And lastly, did the letter-writer not think that government forecasters would be able to account for stimulated demand in their models? I don’t know what assumptions about demographics and petrol prices, and so on, were made. But I’m pretty sure they would have at least attempted to predict additional demand, and they still got a ludicrously low number.

CBD metro = epic fail.

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Letter of the week

I’m an aficionado of the Sydney Morning Herald’s letters to the editor, visiting every day, and today I found an example of that rare breed - an incisive, humorous and wonderfully cutting one-liner:

I wonder if the Pope thinks face masks aggravate the problem of swine flu.

Thank you, Peter Robinson of Ainslie, ACT.

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Higher pay for MPs

Well, technically speaking it’s an increase in their electorate allowance, but anything left over at the end of the year is treated as personal income, so it’s not surprising that MPs consider it “a de facto part of their salary”. The justification used by the Remuneration Tribunal is that it hasn’t changed since 2000, and partially compensates MPs for Rudd’s pay freeze last year (which implies that it is considered part of their income).

It’s not a small allowance either - $32,000. This is on top of a backbencher’s base salary of $127,060, a travel allowance of ~$10,000 to ~$80,000 (depending on the size of the electorate), a private vehicle allowance, a small provision for spousal and dependant travel arrangements, a resettlement allowance for “a senator or member who retires involuntarily from the Parliament” (LOL), first-class overseas junkets study trips, a communications allowance of $27,500,  and the Life Gold Pass for long-term members.

Then there is the ‘additional’ salary, which determines how much more than the base you get, depending on your status within the party. So the Second Deputy Speaker in the House of Representatives, for example, gets an extra 13% (not the lowest), while the Leader of the Opposition gets 85% and the Prime Minister 160%. They also get upgrades to their pay of 3%-16% for chairing parliamentary committees.

So they’re not struggling. However, for equivalent work in the private sector, they could expect to make much more. Depending on their qualifications, it could be two or ten or a hundred times as much.

So how much should MPs be paid? It’s a knotty question that has been argued over since antiquity. I’m ambivalent. I never thought the old adage about Arachis hypogaea and primates really stood up to logic. Yes, higher pay is, ceteris paribus, going to attract more candidates, but it’s not certain it will attract better ones. I read in the newspaper today about a study purporting to show that higher pay does lead to better politicians by analysing trends in Brazil before and after a major shake-up of pay arrangements. But this sentence leapt out at me:

higher pay rates improved their performance as measured by numbers of bills and public works programs sponsored by better-rewarded legislators.

This is the measure of better performance?! The sheet quantity of legislation and ‘public works’? Extraordinary! By that metric, Japanese politicans and their wasteful, frenetic building of roads to nowhere are among the best in the world, and suggests parliamentarians should be paid on commission for every bill they pass. Ludicrous.

Perhaps it is time for a re-evaluation of pollies’ pay structure. Maybe a salary and perks is the wrong way to go. Why not have a structure that tries to align their incentives with better outcomes for society? We could have a range of key performance indicators, and they get paid in relation to how well they meet them. For example, pay them a minimum amount equivalent to Newstart, and for every basis point the Australian economy grows above the OECD average, there will be a 1% bonus - beat it by a whole percentage point and double your money! Base pay rises could be tied to the growth of the income of the lowest quintile instead of inflation. Speaking of which, for every basis point Australian inflation is above the OECD average (or some other indicator), we could have a 1% demerit. We definitely would need a bonus for reducing unemployment, maybe ones for reducing waiting lists for hospitals, and homelessness.

Obviously people would disagree on exactly what KPIs to implement, but I think the idea is sound. Currently the only methods of extracting the best out of our government are elections and opinion polls. These are crude and clumsy methods. Much better to have a continuous feedback loop making sure politicans are doing what is best for the people they represent.

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Just as I predicted…

..and it’s not even started yet.

The Sydney Morning Herald reports that the atrocious underground metro proposal put forward by the NSW government has jumped in price by 30% before a single bucket of soil is excavated. I told you so.

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Proof of the divine

One of the major benefits of studying law at the most highly regarded law school in the country is that I’m surrounded by clever, thoughtful people who express themselves well. Turns out that holds true even when they’re drunk, as I saw at the Law faculty launch party a few weeks ago (the one with the $5,500 bar tab for those paying attention on Facebook).

It was there that I got into a conversation about god and belief and the meaning of life. Not surprising in a place with lots of free alcohol perhaps, but this happened during the very first drink. I was challenged about my agnosticism, and I explained that since there was no direct or indirect evidence of a divine being, I did not believe in one, and that I would continue doing so until such evidence presented itself.

The conversation moved on, but it did make me question what evidence I would find compelling. At the time, I made some glib remark about how if the stars were rearranged to say “Jarrah, I exist. Really. Signed, God” that would be a start. But I immediately thought that probably wouldn’t suffice. I could be hallucinating, for example. Or it could be an advanced alien being, playing games with me.

So what would I accept? The more I think about it, the more I’m not sure anything at all would be enough. As Arthur C. Clarke said, any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic, and religion is just another type of magic (where ‘magic’ is something beyond physical laws/explanation). Therefore, no matter what ‘miracle’ I witnessed (or thought I witnessed), I could never eliminate the possibility of mere alien technology posing as an interventionist god.

I suppose what might sway me would be a plausible hypothesis about the mechanism by which a divine being could be part of the universe, but that traditionally is a contradiction in terms. Of course, then it would have to be supported by evidence arising from experiments designed to test this hypothesis, and a great deal of it too.

For now, colour me sceptical.

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Things I learned today

1. UNSW sends out spam every three weeks or so, spruiking some company or product under a thin guise of supposed relevance to students.

2. “Capitalism represses human sexuality” according to Kate Jeffreys writing in the Socialist Alternative #140. LOL

3. It’s that time of the semester when the ratio of students drinking at 11am to students studying at 11am reverses.

4. I’m the second-best Street Fighter III: Third Strike player at the Kensington campus.

5. Sundry information that I actually attend uni for, but is unlikely to be of interest to my readers.

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Andrew Bolt is an idiot

But luckily, because I’m slow and lazy, a bucketful of bloggers have already demolished his idiocy about refugees so that I don’t have to. The best I’ve seen is by Possum Comitatus at Crikey:

Bolt’s argument is as predictable as it is convenient - Rudd is being soft on border protection and as a result, increasing hordes of refugees are arriving on our fair shores…let’s take Bolt’s pig-ignorant horseshit out the back and kill it.

Which Possum proceeds to do thoroughly and professionally, using facts and mathematics (which are not Bolt’s strong points). Highly recommended.

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Read at own risk

I’ve decided to be brave and put up an old poem. It’s below the fold so that people aren’t accidentally exposed.

Read More »

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More good news for Cuba

Obama has delivered on a campaign promise to ease some sanctions on Cuba. Now Americans with family in Cuba can send any sum of money, and travel at any time and frequency, for any reason, to Cuba.

This is positive, but the bare minimum he could do in conscience. He must go much further. 50 years of political and economic pressure have delivered bugger all in terms of the US agenda for the island. So continued calls for remaning sanctions to be used as bargaining chips is nonsensical.

Yes, there’s a new Castro in charge, one less intransigent, but there’s not many reasons to think he will threaten his government’s hold on power by acquiescing to US demands for greater political freedom for Cubans.

Sanctions on Cuba hurt only the Cuban people. Drop them, Mr President. Drop them now.

UPDATE: I got it wrong, it’s not all Americans, just those with relatives in Cuba. So it’s even less of a step forward than I thought.

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